Climate change

 

Is the progress that was made at the COP26 Glasgow climate summit already in jeopardy because of challenges in the year ahead?

2021 was a momentous year for climate change.

As well as a host of extreme, destructive events influenced by rising temperatures, the past 12 months have seen unprecedented political engagement on the issue, culminating in the COP26 summit in Glasgow in November.

Progress was undoubtedly made and the overall thrust of the meeting was towards more rapid action on a whole host of measures to curb emissions many business listings.

But there are now growing concerns that this momentum may dissipate over the coming months.

The most grievous blow comes from the US.

Next move - China

The potential failure of President Biden to get his Build Back Better act through Congress would significantly impact the ability of the US to meet the tough climate targets that the White House has committed to.

It would also hugely affect the relatively unified approach to climate change on display among world leaders at COP26.

"Everything that Biden pledged, led to this relatively good atmosphere and a sense of momentum in Glasgow," said Dr Joanna DE pledge, a fellow at the Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance.

"But these were just promises; he needs to get the bill through Congress. And it's now looking increasingly dicey. He can do some things with executive orders, but that certainly isn't the kind of sustained institutional climate legislation change that we're really looking for."

"I think the situation to us, is critical."

The despair among many in the US over the possible failure of President Biden's bill will also have knock-on effects throughout the world. This will certainly be the case in China, a country smarting from the perception that it flexed its political muscle in Glasgow to get its way. Biden's political difficulties with the bill are seen as more evidence that the "West is declining".

COP26 President Alek Sharma felt the emotional burden as the talks went deep into overtime

"I am worried 2022 will see a fuller display of geopolitical tension dominating the climate agenda," said Li Shoo, from Greenpeace East Asia.

He is also concerned that the mooted introduction of carbon taxes on imported goods into Europe could elevate a sense of unfairness and frustration in Beijing business listings.

"The Chinese side will see how they are treated vis-a-vis others and make its judgment on whether the game is fair, and most importantly, if it is about the environment at all, or just geopolitics and trade," he told BBC News. Overall, I am looking at a more turbulent year ahead. The years before the Paris agreement were an example of geopolitics helping the climate agenda forward. What lies ahead may be the opposite."

This pessimistic outlook is echoed by the fact that next year's COP is being held in Egypt, and the one after that in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

"Neither of these countries could be described as climate leaders," said Prof J Timmons Roberts from Brown University in Rhode Island, US. The good side is that COP27 will be in a developing country and some issues like loss and damage [who pays for the impact of climate change in the worst affected countries, and how it is paid] may get more traction, but on the issue of emissions reductions, it's not clear that they're going to be leaders."

Another key concern heading into 2022 is that some countries may simply ignore aspects of the Glasgow climate pact that they don't like.

One key measure in the deal was the request for all countries to "revisit and strengthen" their national climate pledges by the time delegates gather in Egypt late in 2022 free business listings.

Despite agreeing to this, a number of countries now say they simply won't update their plans, among them Australia and New Zealand. New Zealand's climate minister James Shaw told national media that this provision really only applied to large emitters like India, China, Russia, and Brazil which hadn't significantly strengthened their plans in time for Glasgow.