Workplaces told to plan for absences of up to 25%

Have been tasked with developing "robust contingency plans" for workplace absences, as the government warned rising cases could see up to a quarter of staff off work.

Public sector leaders have been asked to prepare for "worst-case scenarios" of 10%, 20%, and 25% absence rates, the Cabinet Office said.

The UK has seen record numbers of daily cases over the festive period.

Transport, the NHS, and schools have already seen the effect of absences.

Rising case numbers have led to large numbers self-isolating and being unable to go to work. This has particularly affected industries where staffs are unable to work from home.

· Will schools in the UK stay open this term?

·Who needs to self-isolate now and for how long?

Cabinet Office Minister Steve Barclay is chairing regular meetings with ministers to assess how the spread of the Omicron variant is affecting workforces and supply chains, the Cabinet Office said.

The prime minister had asked ministers working with their respective sectors to test preparations and contingency plans to limit disruption, it explained.

Mr Barclay said the highly transmissible Omicron variant meant businesses and public services "will face disruption in the coming weeks, particularly from higher than normal staff absence".

However, his department said that so far disruption caused by Omicron has been controlled in "most parts of the public sector" many business listings.

What are the self-isolation rules at present?

People who test positive for Covid must self-isolate for at least seven days in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Two negative lateral flow results, 24-hours apart, are required to end self-isolation - the first no earlier than day six.

In Scotland, positive cases must isolate for the full 10 days.

Unvaccinated contacts of positive cases must also isolate for 10 days in all parts of the UK.

Some have called for a US-style self-isolation system to be introduced, where people only have to quarantine for five days, but the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said doing so would be counterproductive and could actually worsen staff shortages if it led to more people being infected.

Explaining its reasoning in a blog post, it said the two systems were not like-for-like. In the UK, the self-isolation "clock" begins when the person experiences symptoms or receives a positive test - whichever is first. But in the US, self-isolation begins only after a positive test - which maybe some days after symptoms first appear business listings.

On day six, the UKHSA says its modeling suggests 10-30% of people will still be infectious, depending on how quickly they get their test result after developing symptoms.

It says ending self-isolation after seven days with two negative lateral flow tests gives a similar level of protection to self-isolating for 10 days when 5% of people will still be infectious.

'It is going to be difficult'

Ian Wilson, the owner, and director of Bell core, a Cumbria-based firm that provides in-home help for the elderly and disabled, is concerned that those who need care aren't going to get it - simply because there aren't enough people to provide it.

Ian Wilson, owner, and director of Bellcore has been able to increase pay but there are not enough carers to recruit

"The amount of people requiring care in the first place means that you're generally run off your feet," Mr Wilson told the BBC. "As soon as you start losing staff [because of Omicron], it gets really, really awkward."

While Bellcore has been able to bring forward an increase in the National Living Wage from April to now, thanks to a government grant, "if the people don't come forward it is really difficult," said Mr Wilson.

Mr Wilson's firm employs around 120 people and could easily find hours for an additional 40 or 50 carers.

"We've got the Brexit thing as well where we had overseas workers," said Mr Wilson. "We can apply for licenses to recruit overseas workers but that is a lengthy and quite costly process to be honest so it is not going to solve anything next week."

Mr Wilson said: "I don't know what the government plans are for contingencies. We can only work with what we've got and those people that we've got can only work so many hours a day, so yes, it is going to be difficult."

The situation will be kept under review, the UKHSA says, but it believes current rules are the "optimal approach at present".

In December, the education secretary urged retired teachers to return to classrooms to help with Covid-related staff shortages in the New Year free business listings.

Some schools had to close early or move to online learning before the end of last term because of staff absences.

And several train operators have had to reduce services because of staff absences.